Global Growth at Risk

U.S. stocks were thrashed Thursday, with the major indexes taking their hardest single-day hit in five weeks, amid widespread selling of stocks and commodities on escalated fears about the global economy.

After falling almost 528 points during the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA -3.51%  finished with a drop of 391.01 points, or 3.5%, at 10,733.83.

The battering left the Dow nearly 14 points above its lowest close for the year and represented its steepest drop since Aug. 18.

All 30 of the blue-chip index’s components lost ground, with United Technologies Corp. UTX +0.16%  hardest hit, its shares tumbling 8.8%.

The negative sentiment taking hold among investors is “driven by the bank runs in Europe, and some of the European banks are rumored to be looking in the Middle East for capital; it’s like a replay of 2008 for some of the U.S. banks,” said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital.

“When you talk about bank recapitalizing and going to places like Dubai to do it, everything echoes back to 2008 except economic fundamentals,” said Lazard’s Hogan.

U.S. stocks were part of a global stock selloff as investors also reacted to the Federal Reserve’s statement late Wednesday. The central bank warned of risks to the economic outlook and unveiled a bond-swap program, seen as something that would have minimal sway in revitalizing growth.

“The Fed cannot engender growth; the Fed cannot engender risk-taking. What it can do is buffer declines, but let’s see a real decline,” said Smith at Fort Pitt Capital, pointing out that the S&P 500 is down 5.8% for the year to date, on a total return basis. “Let’s talk when we make it 18% or 20%. The Fed is going to hold their fire until they see the whites of people’s panicked eyes.” 

Credit -marketwatch

LV Island Maison

Japanese visit from Waseda University

Recently, the Japanese students from Waseda came over to our University for an excursion and we brought them around school.

They were really nice people, super out-going, definitely no awkward moments throughout the entire tour around school.


They have wonderful personalities and are definitely easy to talk to. Even though English is not their strong language, I must say that they speak really, really great English. I was really, really impressed with the level of their English command.


Below is a picture of the wonderful and superb professor from Japan. He is really an awesome guy and he is even an advisor to the government ! How cool is that !!!





We had a lot of fun throughout the tour and some asked me about investments, the modules we taking in Banking and stuff like that. I thought it was really enjoyable talking to them about banking and finance in a casual manner.


I always thought those issues are abit heavy and dry but surprisingly it was an awesome experience talking to them about these topics.


Later on, 4 teams made presentations on valuations about 4 various companies, namely Kikkoman, TOTO, Konami and Ferrotec.


I must say I was really, really impressed. They presented on valuation, something I learnt in my Equity Securities class and that topic is really difficult and yet they were able to present it wonderfully and the best part is that they presented in English.


My god ! If I were asked to present equity securities in Japanese, I will for sure fail terribly.


They all have really left a deep impression on me because of their outgoing personalities and their passion for learning.


Its through them that I see that we really have to see learning as an enjoyable thing and not to take it for granted. They are working so hard over at Waseda University, learning such a difficult topic in English and so we should not complain about learning here in Singapore.


No doubt its tough but I think its definitely a wonderful opportunity to be able to study and learn about new things in school!


They definitely motivated me a whole lot and for them, I will study even harder :)

Stark steps down from European Central Bank

The European Central Bank on Friday said Juergen Stark, a member of the Executive Board and the Governing Council, will step down, leaving his post by the end of the year for "personal reasons." 




Earlier Friday, news reports said Stark would step down due to disagreements over the ECB's bond-buying program. Stark was reportedly opposed to the reactiviation of bond purchases through the ECB's Securities Market Program last month. In a news release, the ECB said Stark would remain in his current position until a successor is appointed, which would be by the end of the year. 



Stark's term was set to expire in May 2014. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet thanked Stark "wholeheartedly for his outstanding contribution to European unity over many years," the ECB said. 




News of Stark's resignation put added pressure on the euro and European and U.S. equities, analysts said. 

Soaring Gold Prices

Gold has been a valuable and highly-sought after metal since long before the beginning of recorded history. This is no exception even till today, especially during this troubling period as many are concerned about whether we will enter into yet another global economic downturn.

In the following months, gold prices are likely to soar higher as investors continue to dash towards the metal for safety. Whether it’s the uncertain growth in the United States, volatile financial market or the Europe debt crisis, all these factors fuel and support the growth of the gold’s strength in today’s market.

Besides the above mentioned issues, there is another key reason to get into the gold business. “There’s this general fear of currencies losing value at a rapid clip and you are going to see gold as a beneficiary of a lot of money going into tangible assets,” said Scott Meyers, a senior trading analyst with Pioneer Futures in New York.

And this is a harsh reality as we made reference to Japan’s draconian measures to tamper down the yen and the Swiss National Bank’s recent move to decrease the value of the franc. Given that investors have nowhere to hide these days, we are seeing gold becoming increasingly credible as a safe-haven.

U.S. said ready to sue big banks over mortgages

A federal U.S. agency is ready to sue more than a dozen major banks, arguing that they misrepresented the quality of mortgage securities they put together and sold in the run-up to the bursting of the housing bubble, the New York Times reported Friday.

The report said the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees mortgage firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is expected to file the lawsuits in federal court Friday or Tuesday. The agency is expected to seek billions in compensation.

The suits are aimed at Bank of America Corp. BAC -6.20%  , Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS -1.29%  , J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. JPM -1.98%  , Deutsche Bank AG DE:DBK -3.87%   DB -2.54%  and others, the report said, citing three unidentified individuals briefed on the matter.

The FHFA will argue that the banks failed to meet their due-diligence duties under securities law and failed to spot evidence that borrowers’ incomes were overstated or falsified, the report said. The securities backed by the mortgages quickly lost value when many borrowers proved unable to meet payments.

The lawsuits aim to secure reimbursement for losses on securities held by Fannie and Freddie. Private investors have attempted to force banks to buy back mortgage-backed bonds.

The report sent Asian and European equity markets lower and was weighing on U.S. stock futures. Shares in Deutsche Bank DE:DBK -3.87%  fell more than 4% in Frankfurt, dragging the German DAX 30 index DX:DAX -2.91%  down 2.7%. 

“The U.S. banking sector has already suffered a massive loss of confidence and remains incredibly fragile,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, in emailed comments. “This lawsuit and the massive sums involved may aggravate the problem and cause another leg lower in the financial sector.”

Spokespersons for Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan declined comment, the report said.

Spokespersons for the banks weren’t immediately available Friday to respond to requests for comment on the story.

A spokesman for Deutsche Bank told the newspaper that the bank “can’t comment on a suit that we haven’t seen and hasn’t been filed yet.”

The report noted that financial executives have privately argued that losses on mortgage-backed securities were the result of a broad downturn in the economy and the housing market rather than how the mortgage securities were structured.

Japan’s new prime minister faces tough challenges

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda emerged as a surprising but seemingly welcome victor in the contest to become Japan’s sixth prime minister in five years on Tuesday, although he will likely face several potential stumbling blocks as leader.

Noda replaces Naoto Kan who resigned last Friday, as he had promised after the Japanese parliament passed a bond-issuance bill and renewable-energy bill.

As well as spearheading reconstruction efforts following the earthquake, key challenges for the 54-year old Noda will include managing the country’s massive debt pile and keeping the yen — currently at levels where profits for exporter firms are often hampered — in check.




“Noda is a strong advocate of tax-funded fiscal reform. He champions hikes in income, corporate and other ‘core taxes’ to pay for reconstruction, and seeks a higher consumption tax to fund future social-security obligations,” said Seiji Adachi, an economist at Deutsche Bank.




Still, those fears may be unfounded. The Nomura analysts said, assuming that income tax is hiked by 10% from 2013, they estimated that the impact on real gross domestic product growth would be just 0.03 percentage points in 2013 and 0.06 percentage points in 2014.

Noda was reportedly helped to election victory by the support of lawmakers unhappy with the idea of power broker Ichiro Ozawa gaining more influence within the party.

The Barclays Capital strategists said.that if Noda attempts to resolve the split within the DPJ between pro- and anti-Ozawa forces, then that “could harden the rift between the ruling and opposition parties, and vice versa.”

In that situation, support for the DPJ could wane, lead to dissolution in the lower house and increase the probability of an election in 2012, they said.

On the other hand, if Noda focuses on reconciling the DPJ and opposition parties, then that will mean he’s likely concentrating on smoothing the path for implementing two extra budgets related to earthquake-reconstruction spending, they said.