Saturday, January 22, 2011

Representativeness heuristic

Taxi Cab Problem


In another study done by Tversky and Kahneman, subjects were given the following problem:
"A cab was involved in a hit and run accident at night. Two cab companies, the Green and the Blue, operate in the city. 85% of the cabs in the city are Green and 15% are Blue.
A witness identified the cab as Blue. The court tested the reliability of the witness under the same circumstances that existed on the night of the accident and concluded that the witness correctly identified each one of the two colors 80% of the time and failed 20% of the time.
What is the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue rather than Green knowing that this witness identified it as Blue?"
Most subjects gave probabilities over 50%, and some gave answers over 80%. The correct answer, found using Bayes' theorem, is lower than these estimates:
  • There is a 12% chance (15% times 80%) of the witness correctly identifying a blue cab.
  • There is a 17% chance (85% times 20%) of the witness incorrectly identifying a green cab as blue.
  • There is therefore a 29% chance (12% plus 17%) the witness will identify the cab as blue.
  • This results in a 41% chance (12% divided by 29%) that the cab identified as blue is actually blue.





WGM 110122

Stay tune for the latest episodes for WGM 110122

Nichkhun Couple


Sweet Potato Couple

Friday, January 21, 2011

Steve Jobs on Sabbatical Leave

A day after Jobs announced he was taking an indefinite leave of absence for medical reasons, Apple reported its record net profit as revenue soared to an unprecedented $26.74 billion in the quarter ending December 31.
The Cupertino, California-based company said it sold 7.33 million iPad tablet computers and 16.24 million iPhones.
"We had a phenomenal holiday quarter with record Mac, iPhone and iPad sales," Jobs said in a statement accompanying the earnings report.

"We are firing on all cylinders and we've got some exciting things in the pipeline for this year including iPhone 4 on Verizon, which customers can't wait to get their hands on."
He chose Monday, a US holiday on which stock markets were closed, to announce that he was turning the Apple helm over to chief operating officer Timothy Cook.
Jobs will keep his chief executive title and participate in "major strategic decisions" at Apple.
Apple shares fell Tuesday as concerns for Jobs health raised questions about the company's future.
Record high quarterly earnings figures and assurances by Cook that the company saw boom times ahead with its coveted gadgets helped the stock recover some ground.
Apple shares rose slightly more than a percent to $344.90 a share in trading that followed the earnings release but remained down in price for the day, after closing at a record high of $348.48 in New York on Friday.
The company is "working around the clock" to increase the supply of its hot-selling iPhones, and has already seen more than 80 percent of major companies begin letting workers use iPad tablet computers for business, Cook said.



I must applaud Steve Jobs for the perfect timing for his departure.

Firstly, he chose to leave on the day where US is having their holiday and when the stock market is closed. This prevents any speculations from going around and damaging Apple's reputation. Usually, such repercussions are hard to save. But Steve Jobs probably had already predicted what's going to happen so that's probably why he chose to leave on a holiday.

Right after that, the earnings for the 4th quarter last year was released and once again, it reached an unprecedented record, thus boosting the investors' confidence once again.


But the question is, how long can this confidence be sustained? Not for long I would say.

Perhaps for 1 quarter?

Typically, the sales for the first quarter is usually not the highest as compared to the 4th quarter. So naturally, the earnings for this quarter would for sure be lower.

So how would the public perceive it? Most probably, they will accuse Apple of bad management and that without Steve Jobs, they can't earn them money. But the truth is, its just a bad quarter in the first place. There's simple no basis of comparison.

But the public, being, well the public. They would not tolerate the drop in earnings and would end up selling Apple's shares because they feel that they magic is lost without Jobs' presence.


At the end of the day, the public are now so mesmerized with Jobs that without him, there would be no Apple. Hence, unless the management and executives can create another revolutionary product without the help of Steve Jobs, Apple is probably going downslope after Steve Jobs inevitable departure in the future.



Now, what Apple has to do is to take the risk and go for a product that will astonish the world. While it is important to maintain and sustain their current achievements, I believe it is more important to take the precarious move and show the world, prove to them that Apple is not nothing without Steve Jobs. That's probably the most important thing on hand now, at least if we look at the long run.


Thursday, January 20, 2011

Toyota Drums out Differences

Employees at Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A are drumming their way to a common bond and cooperation. Over the past three years, more than 3,000 Toyota employees have visited the automaker's training center (University of Toyota) in Torrance, California, to participate in drum circles. Typically in groups of 15 to 50 from one department, employees begin bangnig on one of the 150 percussion instruments available in the drum room. Few have played a percussion instrument before, so the first attempt rarely is worth recording.



"At first it sounds pretty terrible, with everyone competing to be the loudest," admits Ron Johnson, Toyota's resident drum guru and a training center manager in Torrance. But most groups soon find a common beat without any guidance or conductor. Johnson recalls his first drum circle experience: "I'll never forget the spirit that came alive inside me. In a matter of moments, perfect strangers came together in synchronistic rhythm to share a common vision." By the end of the hourlong event most groups have formed a special bond that apparently increases their cooperation and sense of unity when they return to their jobs.




4 more Days to school reopen

4 more days . . .

AB106 Economics


AB103 Statistics


AB105 Organizational Behavior


AB112 Marketing

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

2 tutors

I told my 2 favourite tutors in my Semester 1, namely my Accounting tutor Prof Lau and my IT tutor Mr Chin my exam results.



And they gave me very encouraging comments.


Mr Chin: Hi Mingde,
 
That's excellent news!  I think you deserve it too.
 
Keep it up and all the best to your semesters!
 
Regards,
Chin Chee Kai


Prof Lau: Dear Aaron,

Congratulations! I am proud of you. I have full confidence that you will continue to do exceedingly well.

Do keep in touch and all the best for your future.
Mrs. Ho


They really mean a lot to me. It feels good to have people being confident in you. Because of their trust and beliefs in me, I will continue to work hard and strive towards my dream. Hwaiting !

Chancing on NBS students

Recently, I was just randomly facebooking surfing.


Jumping from friends to friends of friends to friends of friends of friends.


And most of them are from NBS, because of the networking thingy.


And I realised that those from the Double Degree programme in Accountancy&Business, they seem to be more confident, vibrant, and cheerful.


I noticed that those from single programmes tend to complain way more than those in the double degree programme.


Does this goes to show that the double degree programme students can manage their lives better and thus complain lesser?


Or could it mean that they are way too egoistical to let other people know about their pain and flaws?


I believe its the former. Of course this is my personal opinion. Let me explain


I strongly feel that way because when you look at their pictures, you can see that they really are having fun and they value friendships. They spent time with their loved ones and lead fulfilling lives by their own definition. Also, as you look at their wall posts, you will see that they give thanks to people who helped them and they don't talk about pessimistic issues. Basically, they don't complain. Even when faced with a challenge, they just bite on and continue striving forward.


I believe that they are very good role models to look up to. In life, we worry about lots of unduly stuff. And really, they will just occupy our time without much purpose. Most of the time, there's really nothing to be emo over, its important to move on in life. There is no point being upset over something for a long time.


Currently, I'm in the Business programme in NBS. But I will be appealing for the double degree programme by the end of my first academic year in NBS and if I make it. It would definitely be a breakthrough for me. This is the first thing I really want so badly in my 22 years of living and I hope that my hard work will pay off at the end. No matter what, I will give it my best in everything I do and I hope that my hardwork will bear fruits at the end.


So let's just look forward to life and work hard in our respective facets of lives. Let's continue to strive for a better tomorrow and lead life to the fullest.


We got a long way to go afterall.


Hwaiting!

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Photo Manipulation Art

Photo manipulation is one of the most creative art forms to come out of the digital age. Here we showcase ten masters of this technique and 48 examples of their stunning artwork, blending real photos with synthetic elements for a surreal result.



Jonathan Foerster




Craig Shields




Chris Haines



Cristiano Siqueira




Eduardo Rodrigues




David Waters














Year 1 Semester 1 Results

Okay guys, the verdict is out.


I got my first semester's results.


Lets go for a quick recap.


Accounting

Quiz 1: 17/20 (5%)

Quiz 2: 10/10 (5%)

Class participation: Band 1 (10%)

Project: Grade B (15%)

Mid Terms 58/60 (15%)

Overall Grade: A+


Accounting is a module that needs practice. And its best if you keep answering in class because you will tend to have conceptual misunderstanding. Some calculations are quite similar so you might get mixed up. But if you ask in class, you not only train up your communication and public speaking skills, you will get to know your mistakes also. And as humans, we learn best and fastest from our mistakes. One last thing, I got B for my project but it did not make a huge impact on the grade. So, throughout the course, if you get a B, don't give up. Give fighting till the very last minute so that you will have no regrets.


Financial Management

Quiz 1: 14/15 (15%)

Quiz 2: 14/15 (15%)

Overall Grade: A+

For financial management, just keep doing past year papers. Tutorials are not as effective towards the end. Just keep spamming past year papers, do it over and over again. Then you should be familiar with all the techniques. Good luck.


Business Law

Class Participation: A- (20%)

Written Assignment: A- (20%)

Overall Grade: A

Yet another mission impossible. Managed to pull up the 2 A- up to an A. So if you don't give up and keep pushing yourself for the final exam. There is definitely hope. Remember, no matter how bad things turn out at one point in time, just keep going, don't give up.

Don't think because its Business Law, your command of language has to be top-notch. In fact, mine is pretty average. You just have to be consistent in your style of writing and be clear and concise. That should be enough. Treat it like how you converse in your daily lives. Explain it to the tutor like how you would explain it to your friends. Don't bother making it too formal. Just get your point across and that would suffice.

Information Technology

Presentation: A+ (15%)

Digital World Project: A+ (10%)

Class Participation: A- (15%)

Excel&Access Quiz: A (20%)

Overall Grade: A

To be frank, I thought IT was going to be one of my best module. Reason being, the grades seem pretty consistent and I thought I had a great shot at a A+ but turns out it became an A.


So the moral of the story is, even if you get good grades at the start, don't stop there and get complacent. No one can determine what's going to happen till the very end. You shouldn't slack off just because you have done well in the past.



Yep, that's all. Time to get ready for Semester 2 Year 1 in NBS.


Hwaiting ! Consistency for the win

Monday, January 17, 2011

Reunion

Finally, after 2 years ?


I finally met up with my JC friends.


As Bang said, see you next year. I think the next time we will meet will be 2012. Haha full of nonsense again.


Went to Geylang for Dim Sum and it was really good. And as they said, its "Dope".


Apparently, Dope is a word to describe the food being extra delicious.





Here's our bill. No Service Charge :)

The Dim Sums are really nice. Go try it one day if you got the time.

This cost us $40. Super expensive




2nd round of meetup which was directly one week later



Shaky because the escalator was moving.


But I thought nowadays the cameras are able to capture pictures in motion?






Till 2012 . . . . . . . 

2011 Golden Globe Award Winners

2011 Golden Globe Award Winners


The award for best mini series or TV movie goes to Carlos.
The best actor in a TV drama Golden Globe goes to Steve Buscemi inBoardwalk Empire.
Golden Globe for best TV series drama goes to Boardwalk Empire
The award for best original song goes to You Haven't Seen the Last of Me,from Burlesque, sung by Cher.
Golden Globe for best original score goes to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network.
The best animated feature film Globe award goes to Toy Story 3.
Annette Bening wins best actress in a comedy movie for The Kids Are All Right.
The Golden Globe for best actor in TV movie or mini-series goes to Al Pacino in You Don't Know Jack.
Best actress in a TV movie or mini-series Golden Globe: Claire Danes,Temple Grandin
The Golden Globe for best screenplay goes to Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.
The Golden Globe for best supporting actress in a TV series, miniseries or movie is awarded to Jane Lynch for Glee.
The award for best foreign film goes to Denmark's In A Better World.
The best actress, TV musical or comedy Golden Globe is awarded to Laura Linney, The Big C
The Golden Globe for best actor in a TV musical or comedy goes to Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Best supporting actress in a motion picture is awarded to Melissa Leo forThe Fighter.
Matt Damon presents the Cecil B.DeMille award to Robert De Niro.
The Golden Globe award for best director of a motion picture is David Fincher, The Social Network.
Glee wins the Golden Globe for best TV series, musical or comedy
The award for best actor in a motion picture, comedy or musical goes to Paul Giamatti.
Natalie Portman wins best actress in a motion picture, drama for Black Swan.
The award for best motion picture, musical or comedy goes to The Kids Are All Right.
Sandra Bullock presents the award for best actor, motion picture, drama to Colin Firth for The King's Speech.
The Social Network wins the Golden Globe for best motion picture, drama.

2011 Golden Globe Award Winners

2011 Golden Globe Award Winners

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Versace Designs

THE COMPANY
Founded in Milan in 1978 by Gianni Versace, one of the Twentieth Century’s most talented designers, Gianni Versace SpA is today a standard bearer of Italian excellence throughout the world.

The company designs, manufactures, distributes and retails luxury products ranging from haute couture of Atelier Versace, to prêt-à-porter collections, from jewellery to perfumes, from home furnishings to porcelain services for the table. In addition to the above, a variety of other projects relating to lifestyle and design also bear the Versace signature: luxury resorts, private jets and helicopters, limited edition supercars.

The Versace Group distributes its products through a retail network of 110 free-standing boutiques located in the world’s major cities and 123 dedicated shop-in-shop spaces located in leading department stores and multibrand outlets. 



Versace Classics


Versace Classics



Versace Classics



HOME COLLECTION WORLD
Since 1992 each succeeding collection has introduced new themes, always linked to certain established decorative emblems, such as the Medusa or the neo-classical Greek fret, which has now become the iconic symbol of the maison.


In September 2000, the Versace Group, in partnership with the Sunland Group, launched “Palazzo Versace”, the first resort concept bearing the signature of a luxury brand. The original Palazzo Versace is located on the Australian Gold Coast and this will be followed up in 2009 by a second branded complex under construction in Dubai.

In July 2006, Gianni Versace SpA, in partnership with the TAG Group, announced an agreement to create interiors for private jets. Also in 2006, the Group presented a limited edition of the Versace Lamborghini Murciélago LP 640, with its interior totally conceived and produced by “Versace Design”.


Versace Classics



Versace Classics



Versace Classics



HISTORY
From the very beginning, the creative universe of Gianni Versace has always encompassed many disciplines, not just fashion, but design in the broadest sense and the essential art of living were transformed by his great passion for all forms the arts: theatre, dance, painting and sculpture.

The Home Collection was therefore a natural extension of this interest, created in 1992 initially as a collection of textiles for the home (sheets, duvets, [pillows and] cushions), and soon followed by the first landmark ranges of porcelain dinner services and sets, the result of the collaboration with Rosenthal: Medusa, Meandre, Marco Polo, Barocco, Roi Soleil, Les Tresors de la Mer, Le Jardin de Versace.

These dinner services with their decorative themes are now accepted as design classics, just like the Vanitas arm chair; inspired by the sensuous design of a neoclassic chair and recognised as an indispensable masterpiece of the Versace Home Collection.


Versace Classics



Versace Classics



Yeah, thats all.


I wouldn't mind filling my future house up with all these plates, porcelains, furnitures and glasses.




Credits -versace